1. The one-time costs, line by line
These are the costs before the first sale. Each column is one published estimate: Paytronix, July 2026, and Bellwether Coffee, 2026. Get written quotes for your own space, and plan from the middle of each range, not the bottom.
| Cost | Paytronix, July 2026 | Bellwether Coffee, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Lease deposit and first rent | $10,000 to $40,000 | $5,000 to $25,000 deposit, plus $4,000 to $20,000 first and last month's rent |
| Build-out | $15,000 to $40,000 in a former cafe; $100 to $250 a square foot in a raw space | $20,000 to $150,000 |
| Equipment, all of it, new | $20,000 to $75,000 | $20,000 to $80,000 |
| Of that, espresso machine and grinders | $8,000 to $25,000 | $5,000 to $35,000 machine; $1,500 to $8,000 grinders |
| Furniture and fixtures | $8,000 to $25,000 | $5,000 to $30,000 |
| Smallwares: pitchers, tampers, cups | $1,500 to $4,000 | $1,000 to $6,000 |
| Permits and licenses | $2,000 to $10,000 | $1,000 to $8,000 |
| Opening inventory | $5,000 to $12,000 | $5,000 to $20,000 |
| POS and technology | $1,500 to $5,000, plus $50 to $300 a month | $2,000 to $12,000 |
| Exterior signage | $1,500 to $6,000 | |
| Pre-opening payroll and training | $3,000 to $8,000, for one to two weeks of paid training shifts | $2,000 to $5,000 |
| Working capital reserve | 3 to 6 months of operating expenses | 3 to 6 months, $20,000 to $100,000 |
Paytronix puts a small cafe, under 1,000 square feet, at $80,000 to $150,000 all in. Bellwether has no signage line; BlinkSigns, a sign company, puts most lit channel letter signs for one storefront at $4,000 to $12,000 (June 2026).
2. The space decides the biggest line
Build-out has the widest range, and the space you choose sets most of it. Bellwether's 2026 figures:
| What the space is now | Build-out | Weeks |
|---|---|---|
| A cafe | $15,000 to $40,000 | 2 to 6 |
| A retail shop | $40,000 to $80,000 | 8 to 14 |
| A raw shell | $80,000 to $150,000 or more | 16 to 24 |
Paytronix gives the same $15,000 to $40,000 for cosmetic work in a former cafe or restaurant, and $100 to $250 a square foot for raw-space construction in 2026. At 1,000 square feet, a raw space alone is $100,000 to $250,000, more than Paytronix's all-in range for a small cafe. Every week of build-out can be a week of rent with no sales, so ask when rent starts before you sign.
3. Keep months of fixed costs in the bank
Working capital is the cash still in the bank on opening day, there to pay the bills while sales build. Both guides say three to six months. Paytronix counts total operating expenses; Bellwether puts it at $20,000 to $100,000, enough to carry you until you are cash-flow positive.
The floor is your fixed costs, the bills that come every month whether or not anyone walks in. The sample shop from our free break-even sheet:
| Fixed cost | Per month |
|---|---|
| Rent | $4,200 |
| Salaried manager, with taxes | $5,400 |
| Loan or lease payment | $900 |
| Utilities | $650 |
| Insurance | $310 |
| Other fixed | $300 |
| POS, software, subscriptions | $240 |
| Phone and internet | $160 |
| Marketing | $150 |
| Total | $12,310 |
| Months of fixed costs | Cash to hold back |
|---|---|
| 3 | $36,930 |
| 6 | $73,860 |
Keep this cash apart from the build-out budget. If it pays for the last of the build-out, it is no longer a reserve.
4. What a slow start costs
In the sample shop, cost of goods is 30% of sales, hourly labor is 28% and card processing is 2.6%, so each dollar of sales leaves 39.4 cents to pay the fixed costs. It breaks even at $31,244 a month. Open six days a week, about 26 days a month, that is $1,203 every open day, or 184 sales at a $6.55 average ticket.
Any month below break-even is made up from the reserve. At half of break-even sales, the shop covers only half its fixed costs and is short $6,155 a month. Three months like that use $18,465. Three months of fixed costs, $36,930, covers it and leaves $18,465 for a repair or a slower fourth month. One month of fixed costs would be gone by the end of the second.
This assumes hourly labor stays at 28% of sales. If you staff slow days like busy ones, it will not, and the gap grows.
5. Before you sign the lease
The lease turns most of these numbers into promises. Check these first:
| Check | Why |
|---|---|
| Break-even per open day at the real rent | Rent comes every month of the lease, open or not. |
| What the lease adds each month: common area charges, taxes, upkeep | They are fixed costs too, and they raise break-even. |
| When rent starts | Weeks of build-out with no sales come out of your cash. |
| What the space is now | A former cafe can cost $15,000 to $40,000 to build out; a raw shell, $80,000 to $150,000 or more. |
| Written quotes for build-out, equipment and permits | The ranges above are wide. Your quotes are your numbers. |
| Three months of fixed costs left after everything else is paid | A slow start becomes a cost, not a crisis. |
Our guide to the numbers before you sign a cafe lease runs the full math: fixed costs, sales per open day and per hour, and what one change does.
The free break-even sheet runs this math on your own numbers: fixed costs and percentages in, sales per open day and per hour out, with the what-if table. Once you open, the Tillwhistle kit tracks the rest every week, $97 once.